Experts analyze the situation in the Czech Republic
Czechia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for 3–4 October 2025, arrive at a pivotal moment marked by public fatigue and polarisation. The current centre-right government led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala – an alliance of SPOLU and the centrist Mayors and Independents (STAN) – is unpopular after a term marred by post-covid inflation, tax hikes and corruption scandals. With public trust at a low ebb and voter fatigue widespread, the governing parties appear unlikely to retain power in October.
At the forefront of the race is Andrej Babiš’s populist, Eurosceptic ANO party. Often dubbed the ‘Czech Trump’, ANO polls above 30% and Babiš is widely expected to lead the vote share in October. His previous tenure as prime minister (2017–2021) was characterised by economic stability and expansive welfare policies. At the same time, his leadership continues to be shadowed by legal and ethical controversy, most notably the Čapí hnízdo (Stork’s Nest) affair, a long-standing case involving EU subsidy fraud allegations.
If ANO secures enough votes, the next question is whether Babiš can forge a coalition. A partnership with Tomio Okamura’s far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) is increasingly plausible, which would have serious implications. Both parties are eurosceptic: ANO’s shift towards Orbán’s bloc and SPD’s push for an EU referendum could align Czechia with Hungary and Slovakia as a Central European axis of obstruction.
On the foreign policy front, the elections will serve as a referendum on Czechia’s international orientation: whether the country will maintain its staunch support for Ukraine and its NATO/EU integration, or shift toward a more sovereignty-driven, potentially Russia-friendly posture. The stakes extend beyond domestic governance, touching on the very fabric of Czechia’s alliances, regional standing and contributions to European unity and security.
Welcome and introduction
Gerhard Marchl
Head of the Department for European Politics, Karl-Renner-Institut
Briefing
Kamila Bogdanova
IDM Fellow
Speakers
Kamila Bogdanova
IDM Fellow
Petr Kaniok
Professor Masaryk University
Pavel Havlíček
Research Fellow Association for International Affairs (AMO)
Moderation
Rebecca Thorne
Research Associate, IDM
Register here to participate online: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_a1iecxtnR4aEdbUr_y7Q_g
The discussion will take place in English in cooperation with the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) and the Campus Tivoli of the ÖVP.
Projektleitung
Dr. Gerhard Marchl
Kontakt
